Is RSA 2048 encryption still secure, or has it been broken?

RSA (Rivest-Shamir-Adleman) encryption is a public-key encryption method widely used for securing data transmission over the internet, relying on the mathematical difficulty of factoring large composite numbers.

RSA-2048 is considered secure by classical computing standards, as factoring a 2048-bit number requires massive computational resources and could take years or decades to break with traditional algorithms.

The advent of quantum computers has raised concerns about the security of RSA encryption, as quantum algorithms like Shor's algorithm theoretically can factor large numbers exponentially faster than classical algorithms.

Recent claims suggest that RSA-2048 can be broken using a quantum computer in a remarkably short time frame, potentially within hours, challenging long-held assumptions about its security.

A paper by researchers led by Wang Chao from Shanghai University suggests that quantum computers can exploit advanced techniques to crack RSA-2048, although this has not been universally accepted by the scientific community.

The specific quantum computational resources required to break RSA-2048 reportedly include around 20 million qubits, which is far beyond the current capabilities of existing quantum computers.

Not all quantum approaches are equally effective; the recent claims involve hybrid systems that combine quantum and classical computing, demonstrating the complexity of quantum cryptanalysis.

The breakthrough claimed by Ed Gerck emphasizes the role of quantum approximate optimization algorithms in factoring integers, highlighting the intersection of quantum physics and computer science.

Quantum computers operate on principles that differ from classical computers, such as superposition and entanglement, which allow them to process information in ways that classical computers cannot.

While RSA-2048 has not been universally acknowledged as "broken," its security is increasingly seen as vulnerable as quantum computing technology advances.

Security experts caution that the claims made should be viewed through a critical lens, as reproducibility and peer review within the scientific community are essential before any broad acceptance can occur.

In practical terms, the potential vulnerability of RSA-2048 could disrupt significant portions of internet security infrastructure, as many digital certificates currently utilize this encryption standard.

Loss of RSA-2048 security would mean most existing secure communications, such as HTTPS for secure web browsing and systems used for online banking, would need substantial overhaul to migrate to quantum-resistant algorithms.

Research into post-quantum cryptography is actively ongoing, with alternative algorithms being developed to ensure security against future quantum computers, illustrating the proactive measures needed in the cryptographic community.

Notably, while quantum computers may one day pose a threat to RSA, effective factoring of large primes may still be years away due to technological limitations and the ongoing evolution of quantum computing research.

The implications of breaking RSA encryption extend beyond simple data privacy; they encompass concerns about identity theft, financial fraud, and even national security if sensitive information becomes accessible.

Current quantum systems are often characterized as Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) computers, which are not yet capable of executing complex algorithms without significant error rates.

Researchers emphasize the importance of understanding that theoretical advancements in quantum computing do not immediately translate to practical, real-world applications.

Agencies such as the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) are leading efforts in evaluating potential replacements for current cryptographic standards to ensure future resilience.

The challenge in transitioning to quantum-safe cryptography lies not only in developing effective algorithms but also in replacing and upgrading the vast existing infrastructure reliant on RSA encryption worldwide.